Friday 4 September 2009
Monday 24 August 2009
Will there be less champagne flowing at the 2009 Rendez-Vous?
This time in two weeks I will be in Monte Carlo along with another 2500 or so people from the weird and wonderful world of reinsurance.
For those of you not familiar with the annual Rendez-Vous, it is the largest reinsurance conference in the world, a place where the brokers and underwriters do a preliminary dance to decide on reinsurance pricing for the January renewals.
For those of you who have never been to Rendez-vous, it is a conference unlike any other. The hub of the action takes place around Casino Square and in the Cafe de Paris, where men (and a handful of women) in chinos and button-down pastel-coloured shirts meet. Over €10 espressos, there are half hourly meetings where numbers are scribbled down on bits of paper, pushed around, and debated hotly, before everyone gets up on the half hour mark, shakes hands and checks the Blackberry for the name of the person and location of the next half hour meeting. This merry dance goes on from the Sunday 9th of September to Wednesday 9th of September, sometimes even to the Thursday.
Every night there are lavish cocktail parties, champagne flowing with fancy canapés to nibble on, followed by rich dinners and late drinks, followed by even later drinks and sometimes a spot of gambling. Chief Executives can be seen at tables at the two casinos, which seems appropriate, given the nature of the business. At the late night bars, pocket loads of business cards are collected, as people meet and exchange industry gossip and arrange to meet again in Baden Baden in October (or London, Bermuda, Zurich, Dublin or New York).
But this year, will the credit crunch affect the way people spend? According to the Principality of Monaco, only the world-famous Grand Prix brings in more money than the Rendez-Vous. Already parties have been cancelled and few have sprung up to take their place. What do you think? I've created a short (only four questions) survey to see what you think of spending at Monte - please take it and I'll publish the results.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=Md07orF1Qmn6IlAcPPAwlQ_3d_3d
http://www.rein4ce.co.uk/
For those of you not familiar with the annual Rendez-Vous, it is the largest reinsurance conference in the world, a place where the brokers and underwriters do a preliminary dance to decide on reinsurance pricing for the January renewals.
For those of you who have never been to Rendez-vous, it is a conference unlike any other. The hub of the action takes place around Casino Square and in the Cafe de Paris, where men (and a handful of women) in chinos and button-down pastel-coloured shirts meet. Over €10 espressos, there are half hourly meetings where numbers are scribbled down on bits of paper, pushed around, and debated hotly, before everyone gets up on the half hour mark, shakes hands and checks the Blackberry for the name of the person and location of the next half hour meeting. This merry dance goes on from the Sunday 9th of September to Wednesday 9th of September, sometimes even to the Thursday.
Every night there are lavish cocktail parties, champagne flowing with fancy canapés to nibble on, followed by rich dinners and late drinks, followed by even later drinks and sometimes a spot of gambling. Chief Executives can be seen at tables at the two casinos, which seems appropriate, given the nature of the business. At the late night bars, pocket loads of business cards are collected, as people meet and exchange industry gossip and arrange to meet again in Baden Baden in October (or London, Bermuda, Zurich, Dublin or New York).
But this year, will the credit crunch affect the way people spend? According to the Principality of Monaco, only the world-famous Grand Prix brings in more money than the Rendez-Vous. Already parties have been cancelled and few have sprung up to take their place. What do you think? I've created a short (only four questions) survey to see what you think of spending at Monte - please take it and I'll publish the results.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=Md07orF1Qmn6IlAcPPAwlQ_3d_3d
http://www.rein4ce.co.uk/
Friday 7 August 2009
Haven't we gone all Social Media and 2.0?
There is something I’ve been noticing lately. While we’ve all been glued to the results coming out (and what a mixed bunch they have been) in the last week or so, I’ve noticed that there is a lot more blogging going on in the reinsurance and insurance spaces.
While the market has always been criticised for not embracing technology (and that link will take you down painful-memory lane) has the market finally gone all 2.0? Or is it just that as I’ve started blogging, I’ve been looking out for others doing the same...
In case you are interested, some of the best I’ve seen so far are:
Roger Foord – he does a London Market newsletter which focuses on technology and the market – and is really worth a read. Click on his name here and it will take you through to his website where you can register for it for free.
GC Capital Ideas. This one just shows you how Guy Carp is heads and shoulders above everyone else when it comes to social media. This is a cracking site, packed full of info and put up on every relevant page on LinkedIn. Top marks.
Robert Coomes. He gives advice to out of work reinsurance and insurance professionals.
Insurance Mavericks. These guys e-mail you all sorts of ways to improve insurance sales, and are a bit off-the-wall when it comes to it. Fun and cheeky, they are a bit too 2.0 for my tastes, but hey, if it works... worth checking them out though. And their Tweets are funny too.
And that leads me onto... Twitter. And, yes, it is for grownups too. There are some people worth checking out (apart from the lovely and well-informed reinsurance girl)
Reinsurance Mag (Reinsurance Magazine's twitter)
John Lobert (who tweets on US insurance and legislative affairs)
Post Online (now encompasses Reinsurance's news tweets)
trackhurricanes (does what it says on the tin)
syndicate scoop (who tracks who is going where in the London Market)
IIIindustryblog (Insurance Information Institute updates, which are mostly US but good)
And for an example of how disgruntled tweeters can damage your reputation have a look at Statefarm Sucks a not-so-happy-camper who has over 5400 followers...
So, if you are bored during this quiet month, and counting the days before you go to Monte Carlo log on to Twitter and have a look around. If you find anyone else interesting in the blogosphere or the land of Twitter, let me know.
Oh, and by the way, weren't those AIG results today interesting? First profit in seven quarters...
While the market has always been criticised for not embracing technology (and that link will take you down painful-memory lane) has the market finally gone all 2.0? Or is it just that as I’ve started blogging, I’ve been looking out for others doing the same...
In case you are interested, some of the best I’ve seen so far are:
Roger Foord – he does a London Market newsletter which focuses on technology and the market – and is really worth a read. Click on his name here and it will take you through to his website where you can register for it for free.
GC Capital Ideas. This one just shows you how Guy Carp is heads and shoulders above everyone else when it comes to social media. This is a cracking site, packed full of info and put up on every relevant page on LinkedIn. Top marks.
Robert Coomes. He gives advice to out of work reinsurance and insurance professionals.
Insurance Mavericks. These guys e-mail you all sorts of ways to improve insurance sales, and are a bit off-the-wall when it comes to it. Fun and cheeky, they are a bit too 2.0 for my tastes, but hey, if it works... worth checking them out though. And their Tweets are funny too.
And that leads me onto... Twitter. And, yes, it is for grownups too. There are some people worth checking out (apart from the lovely and well-informed reinsurance girl)
Reinsurance Mag (Reinsurance Magazine's twitter)
John Lobert (who tweets on US insurance and legislative affairs)
Post Online (now encompasses Reinsurance's news tweets)
trackhurricanes (does what it says on the tin)
syndicate scoop (who tracks who is going where in the London Market)
IIIindustryblog (Insurance Information Institute updates, which are mostly US but good)
And for an example of how disgruntled tweeters can damage your reputation have a look at Statefarm Sucks a not-so-happy-camper who has over 5400 followers...
So, if you are bored during this quiet month, and counting the days before you go to Monte Carlo log on to Twitter and have a look around. If you find anyone else interesting in the blogosphere or the land of Twitter, let me know.
Oh, and by the way, weren't those AIG results today interesting? First profit in seven quarters...
Friday 24 July 2009
Lets play darts
Don Kramer, founder and CEO of Ariel Re has this trick he uses sometimes when public speaking. He holds a slide in his hand and describes what is on it to the audience. The last one he did he held up the slide and said something along the lines of: “This is the most technologically advanced cat modelling tool we have come across. As you know we are in Bermuda we are at the forefront of this technology (pause). It is a computerised darts game (pause and laughter). What you do is you throw darts at the board to predict when and how hurricanes are going to hit. The reason it is the best tool is that the darts don’t have points on the end (pause) unlike the ratings agencies who can seriously injure people when throwing real darts.”
While it may take a certain type of re/insurance audience to appreciate these jokes (and yes, everyone laughed), his point is valid about forecasting for hurricanes. This is supposed to be an average hurricane year, with Colorado State University (CSU) having the prediction of 12 named storms, with six hurricanes are likely to make landfall.
But the flaws in cat modelling run much deeper. Hurricane Ike last year once again threw into stark relief how difficult it is to predict what a catastrophic event will actually do in reality. What had been seen as a relatively mild storm and initially seen as a fairly minor event, grew in size and cost as the claims grew and grew and the magnitude of the destruction became clear as time marched on.
The flaws in cat modelling are well documented. Just think of the terrorism attacks at the World Trade Center, London, Madrid and Mumbai, as well as Hurricane Katrina’s devastation to flood defences.
Modellers have learnt from these and the many other hurricanes that have provided additional information to modelling vendors as well as insurers.
Vendor models have increased resolution of their simulations to try and fill gaps in knowledge and the quality of information form insurers has improved in quality. But what needs to change is that modelling needs to be seen as an integrated tool – something to be used just to aid underwriting, but is and always will be fundamentally flawed. For instance, how long will it take for the lessons learned in Ike to filter down into the models – and how much business will have been underwritten using them by the time the updated models hit the streets?
So as we continue to look to the weather channels to see what might be forming over the Atlantic’s unusually warm seas (and by the way there are no tropical cyclones at this time), we may have to heed the venerable Mr Kramer’s advice and get ourselves a dart board to play with.
While it may take a certain type of re/insurance audience to appreciate these jokes (and yes, everyone laughed), his point is valid about forecasting for hurricanes. This is supposed to be an average hurricane year, with Colorado State University (CSU) having the prediction of 12 named storms, with six hurricanes are likely to make landfall.
But the flaws in cat modelling run much deeper. Hurricane Ike last year once again threw into stark relief how difficult it is to predict what a catastrophic event will actually do in reality. What had been seen as a relatively mild storm and initially seen as a fairly minor event, grew in size and cost as the claims grew and grew and the magnitude of the destruction became clear as time marched on.
The flaws in cat modelling are well documented. Just think of the terrorism attacks at the World Trade Center, London, Madrid and Mumbai, as well as Hurricane Katrina’s devastation to flood defences.
Modellers have learnt from these and the many other hurricanes that have provided additional information to modelling vendors as well as insurers.
Vendor models have increased resolution of their simulations to try and fill gaps in knowledge and the quality of information form insurers has improved in quality. But what needs to change is that modelling needs to be seen as an integrated tool – something to be used just to aid underwriting, but is and always will be fundamentally flawed. For instance, how long will it take for the lessons learned in Ike to filter down into the models – and how much business will have been underwritten using them by the time the updated models hit the streets?
So as we continue to look to the weather channels to see what might be forming over the Atlantic’s unusually warm seas (and by the way there are no tropical cyclones at this time), we may have to heed the venerable Mr Kramer’s advice and get ourselves a dart board to play with.
Monday 20 July 2009
Mairi is digitally distinct
Hey - I'm now digitally distinct - no surprise there, I've been working hard at my on-line presence. But this is fun to do, so log on and take a look.
Wednesday 8 July 2009
The best live entertainment at the rendezvous yet
With Aon Benfield and the DIFC cancelling champagne-fuelled parties this year at the Rendezvous, I was worried that entertainment might be a bit hard to come by come September in Monte Carlo.
But help is at hand. Well-known Monte aficionados John Guy, Adrian Ladbury and Neil Smith have decided to create a new form of entertainment - and one that is highly suitable for the credit crunch. They are taking part in the Iron Man Half Marathon.
Now, let's remember that these guys are in the 40s and have between them probably propped up more hotel bars than they would care to admit while working and schmoozing in the re/insurance space.
So they are on the wagon and in training as we speak in order to raise cash for prostate cancer.
Many of you will know John well - he is doing the running on the Sunday, 6th Sept, the final leg a 21 km run. Adrian is swimming 1.9km and Neil has a 90k cycle. The best time to catch them is during the final run which should be between 11.30 and 1.30, when the half marathon is underway round the streets. It is in a three mile loop, I am told, including a climb up from the harbour to the Casino Square five times including the finish.
So it is time for us to empty out our wallets for them. To sponsor this mad dash in the mid-day sun go to http://www.justgiving.com/jonguyironman/. Or at least put down your €10 coffee at Casino square and go and watch - then buy them all a beer at the end.
But help is at hand. Well-known Monte aficionados John Guy, Adrian Ladbury and Neil Smith have decided to create a new form of entertainment - and one that is highly suitable for the credit crunch. They are taking part in the Iron Man Half Marathon.
Now, let's remember that these guys are in the 40s and have between them probably propped up more hotel bars than they would care to admit while working and schmoozing in the re/insurance space.
So they are on the wagon and in training as we speak in order to raise cash for prostate cancer.
Many of you will know John well - he is doing the running on the Sunday, 6th Sept, the final leg a 21 km run. Adrian is swimming 1.9km and Neil has a 90k cycle. The best time to catch them is during the final run which should be between 11.30 and 1.30, when the half marathon is underway round the streets. It is in a three mile loop, I am told, including a climb up from the harbour to the Casino Square five times including the finish.
So it is time for us to empty out our wallets for them. To sponsor this mad dash in the mid-day sun go to http://www.justgiving.com/jonguyironman/. Or at least put down your €10 coffee at Casino square and go and watch - then buy them all a beer at the end.
Thursday 4 June 2009
Hurricane Season
No one is cracking open the champagne yet. Yesterday Guy Carpenter said that P&C rates in Florida had gone up by 15% at June 1 renewals. While this is a healthy jump, it only cancels out the 15% decline seen at the same time last year. Basically, it is way lower than had been hoped for.
In Florida, renewals are traditionally re-negociated at this time of year as it is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
Experts at Colorado State University have predicted 14 tropical storms this year and said seven would develop into hurricanes, with forecasting pioneer William Gray saying 2009 would be another "above-average" hurricane season after an active 2008.
This, plus the global shortage of capital, had everyone hoping for significant price rises. These first failed to materialise at 1/1, and now are falling short at 1/6.
But there are signs that things are picking up. Just when everyone said there was no capital to be had and the only way to maximise capital was either to buy back debt or do the kind of share-swapping deal seen in the IPC-Max Capital proposed merger, RenaissanceRe has set up a Florida cat sidecar with $60 million of equity. Timicuan Reinsurance II Ltd, or Tim Re II, (by the way, have they run out of renaissance artists to name their sidecars after?), has $10 million of RenaissanceRe's money and is the first new sidecar to be launched since January 2008.
It is a small green shoot, but prices will still need to rise by about 20 to 30% for there to be the kind of sidecar activity seen in 2006, when about 20 sidecars with about $4.5 billion in capital were formed.
I think we will have to wait to see what the hurricane season produces this year before we go popping that champagne cork
In Florida, renewals are traditionally re-negociated at this time of year as it is the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1.
Experts at Colorado State University have predicted 14 tropical storms this year and said seven would develop into hurricanes, with forecasting pioneer William Gray saying 2009 would be another "above-average" hurricane season after an active 2008.
This, plus the global shortage of capital, had everyone hoping for significant price rises. These first failed to materialise at 1/1, and now are falling short at 1/6.
But there are signs that things are picking up. Just when everyone said there was no capital to be had and the only way to maximise capital was either to buy back debt or do the kind of share-swapping deal seen in the IPC-Max Capital proposed merger, RenaissanceRe has set up a Florida cat sidecar with $60 million of equity. Timicuan Reinsurance II Ltd, or Tim Re II, (by the way, have they run out of renaissance artists to name their sidecars after?), has $10 million of RenaissanceRe's money and is the first new sidecar to be launched since January 2008.
It is a small green shoot, but prices will still need to rise by about 20 to 30% for there to be the kind of sidecar activity seen in 2006, when about 20 sidecars with about $4.5 billion in capital were formed.
I think we will have to wait to see what the hurricane season produces this year before we go popping that champagne cork
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